Just ten days to the presidential election of March
28, a survey carried out by a National Think Tank
Group, has predicted victory for the candidate of the
All Progressives Congress (APC), General
Muhammadu Buhari. The two-page analysis of the
survey, tagged: “Straw Prediction of 2015
Presidential Election”, made available to Daily Sun
by Dr. Peter Orji, gave Buhari/APC an estimated
votes of 15.4 million and President Goodluck
Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), 11
million.
The researchers stated that they arrived at the
figures after “a careful study of the demographics
of Nigeria voting patterns,based on an unbiased
analysis of how voters shall cast their votes.”
According to the group, Buhari would lead in the
North-East, North- West, North-Central and South-
West, while Jonathan would win in the South-South
and South-East.
The survey said Buhari would eventually have an
upper hand going by heavy votes he would record in
his catchment areas against Jonathan, who the
survey said, would garner fewer votes in his areas
of strength.
However, unlike 2011, General Buhari, the survey
said, “will secure substantial votes in the North-
Central and greatly improve his showing in the
South-East.”
The survey summed up the distribution of the votes
across the zones thus: “North-Central, PDP,
1.73million, APC, 1.86million. North-East, PDP,
1.3million, APC, 2.55million. North- West, PDP
2.15million, APC, 5.65million. South-East, PDP
1.65million, APC, 650,000. South-South, PDP,
2,.2million APC, 1.7million. South- West, PDP,
2million, APC, 2.9million. FCT, PDP, 150,000, APC,
200,000.
In summary, the survey revealed that, “the APC
candidate will carry all the states in North-West
and North- East and will win marginally in North-
Central,” saying, “the margin of victory for Gen.
Buhari is a staggering 4.4million votes and it is
impossible for President Jonathan to close such a
margin.”
What would boost Buhari’s victory in the North-East
and North-West, the poll explained, would largely be
due to expected increase in the voters’ turnout,
“whilst the turnout in the South-East and South-
South is likely to decrease.
The simple explanation, according to the group, “is
that the North-East, North-West and South-West
zones feel that their sons, Buhari and Osinbanjo, are
on the APC ticket and considering the number of
votes accruing to the three zones, Jonathan will
find it absolutely impossible to fill the gap.”
While concluding, the group said that, “because of
the postponement that occurred five weeks ago, a
repeat this time will not go down well with Nigerians
who very likely will accuse the administration of
having its hand in disrupting the process, and
because of the tight timelines to avoid a possible
constitutional crisis a shift in the elections this time
may become impossible to contemplate.”
Sunonline news
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