Nigeria's disputed claim to have brokered a
ceasefire agreement with Boko Haram and release deal for
more than 200 kidnapped schoolgirls was aimed at
improving the country's tarnished reputation abroad and
little to do with domestic politics, analysts say.
The surprise announcement on Friday created a sliver of
hope that the brutal five-year Islamist uprising could be
nearing an end and that the girls seized from the northeast
town of Chibok of April 14 might rejoin their families.
There are already strong signs that the deal will prove
hollow: violence raged through the weekend and the
credentials of the so-called Boko Haram negotiator have
been widely questioned.
But even before cracks emerged in the purported ceasefire,
many saw a clear political motive in the timing of the
announcement.
A common theory ran that President Goodluck Jonathan
would use the development to proclaim himself a tireless
pursuer of peace, then swiftly declare his re-election plans
for polls next February.
But that misreads the realities of Nigerian politics, a
nation of 170 million people where a government's record
on major issues often seems irrelevant on election day,
analysts said.
"I really wonder if ending the Chibok crisis helps Jonathan
politically," said John Campbell, a former US ambassador
to Nigeria now with the Council on Foreign Relations think-
tank.
The Chibok crisis is "a much bigger issue outside Nigeria
than inside Nigeria" he told AFP.
For Osisioma Nwolise, a political science professor at the
southern University of Ibadan, the Boko Haram conflict is a
marginal campaign issue at best.
Nwolise said the numbers voting on the issue of Boko
Haram is likely to be small, despite the several million
people in the mainly Muslim north who have been directly
affected by the violence.
Residents of the embattled northeast for example have
been frequently left defenceless by the military against
horrific Boko Haram raids.
Jonathan's popularity in region, which was never high, is
now likely to be at an all-time low.
But Campbell agreed that the conflict and the fate of the
schoolgirls is unlikely to impact the president's re-election
prospects.
Elections in Nigeria are not issue-based but determined by
factors including the ability of the ruling Peoples
Democratic Party to use the money and power of
incumbency to steer the vote in its favour, he added.
Oil markets
The ceasefire and hostage release announcement came
with a massive risk of failure, largely because all past
negotiations with Boko Haram have collapsed.
Campbell suggested that those wondering why Nigeria
would "go down this road", might do well to look to the
international oil market.
"When I was ambassador, the United States imported a
million barrels of Nigerian oil a day. Now it is zero," he
said.
Increased US oil production is the main reason for this and
Nigeria, Africa's top oil producer, still has willing buyers for
its crude.
But Campbell argued that Abuja may be anxious to make
Jonathan "a more attractive figure" to ensure that Nigeria
remains a viable trading partner for the West.
Jonathan's handling of Boko Haram and the Chibok crisis
in particular has been pilloried abroad.
He hardly said a word about the kidnappings in the weeks
following the attack and critics say his response showed a
lack of compassion from the outset.
The government only moved to respond after a global
social media campaign calling for the girls' release went
viral, attracting the support of celebrities and US First Lady
Michelle Obama.
Making dramatic moves now to secure the girls' freedom
possibly including a swap for Boko Haram detainees could
be in Nigeria's long-term financial interest, the ex-
ambassador said.
For Adewale Maja-Pearce, who writes a Nigeria column for
the New York Times, Jonathan has clearly become
increasingly pre-occupied with his reputation abroad.
He pointed to the $1.2-million (940,000-euro) contract
with the US public relations firm Levick signed when
outrage over the Chibok crisis was at its height.
And, Maja-Pearce argued, if despite the announced deal the
girls still do not return home, Jonathan will be no worse off.
"I think he believes that bringing back the Chibok girls will
help him internationally but not bringing back the Chibok
girls won't hurt him," he said.
- AFP
ceasefire agreement with Boko Haram and release deal for
more than 200 kidnapped schoolgirls was aimed at
improving the country's tarnished reputation abroad and
little to do with domestic politics, analysts say.
The surprise announcement on Friday created a sliver of
hope that the brutal five-year Islamist uprising could be
nearing an end and that the girls seized from the northeast
town of Chibok of April 14 might rejoin their families.
There are already strong signs that the deal will prove
hollow: violence raged through the weekend and the
credentials of the so-called Boko Haram negotiator have
been widely questioned.
But even before cracks emerged in the purported ceasefire,
many saw a clear political motive in the timing of the
announcement.
A common theory ran that President Goodluck Jonathan
would use the development to proclaim himself a tireless
pursuer of peace, then swiftly declare his re-election plans
for polls next February.
But that misreads the realities of Nigerian politics, a
nation of 170 million people where a government's record
on major issues often seems irrelevant on election day,
analysts said.
"I really wonder if ending the Chibok crisis helps Jonathan
politically," said John Campbell, a former US ambassador
to Nigeria now with the Council on Foreign Relations think-
tank.
The Chibok crisis is "a much bigger issue outside Nigeria
than inside Nigeria" he told AFP.
For Osisioma Nwolise, a political science professor at the
southern University of Ibadan, the Boko Haram conflict is a
marginal campaign issue at best.
Nwolise said the numbers voting on the issue of Boko
Haram is likely to be small, despite the several million
people in the mainly Muslim north who have been directly
affected by the violence.
Residents of the embattled northeast for example have
been frequently left defenceless by the military against
horrific Boko Haram raids.
Jonathan's popularity in region, which was never high, is
now likely to be at an all-time low.
But Campbell agreed that the conflict and the fate of the
schoolgirls is unlikely to impact the president's re-election
prospects.
Elections in Nigeria are not issue-based but determined by
factors including the ability of the ruling Peoples
Democratic Party to use the money and power of
incumbency to steer the vote in its favour, he added.
Oil markets
The ceasefire and hostage release announcement came
with a massive risk of failure, largely because all past
negotiations with Boko Haram have collapsed.
Campbell suggested that those wondering why Nigeria
would "go down this road", might do well to look to the
international oil market.
"When I was ambassador, the United States imported a
million barrels of Nigerian oil a day. Now it is zero," he
said.
Increased US oil production is the main reason for this and
Nigeria, Africa's top oil producer, still has willing buyers for
its crude.
But Campbell argued that Abuja may be anxious to make
Jonathan "a more attractive figure" to ensure that Nigeria
remains a viable trading partner for the West.
Jonathan's handling of Boko Haram and the Chibok crisis
in particular has been pilloried abroad.
He hardly said a word about the kidnappings in the weeks
following the attack and critics say his response showed a
lack of compassion from the outset.
The government only moved to respond after a global
social media campaign calling for the girls' release went
viral, attracting the support of celebrities and US First Lady
Michelle Obama.
Making dramatic moves now to secure the girls' freedom
possibly including a swap for Boko Haram detainees could
be in Nigeria's long-term financial interest, the ex-
ambassador said.
For Adewale Maja-Pearce, who writes a Nigeria column for
the New York Times, Jonathan has clearly become
increasingly pre-occupied with his reputation abroad.
He pointed to the $1.2-million (940,000-euro) contract
with the US public relations firm Levick signed when
outrage over the Chibok crisis was at its height.
And, Maja-Pearce argued, if despite the announced deal the
girls still do not return home, Jonathan will be no worse off.
"I think he believes that bringing back the Chibok girls will
help him internationally but not bringing back the Chibok
girls won't hurt him," he said.
- AFP
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